
emp_pop_ratio_dates = 1948:.25:2020.75;

emp_pop_ratio = [56.5
56.6
56.8
56.6
56.1
55.4
55.1
55.3
55.1
55.9
56.5
56.8
57.2
57.3
57.4
57.4
57.5
57.2
57.1
57.3
58.0
57.3
57.1
56.3
55.9
55.4
55.2
55.4
55.7
56.3
57.1
57.4
57.5
57.5
57.6
57.4
57.4
57.2
57.1
56.6
55.6
55.3
55.3
55.5
55.7
56.3
56.1
56.0
55.9
56.4
56.2
55.9
55.6
55.3
55.2
55.4
55.6
55.6
55.6
55.3
55.2
55.4
55.4
55.4
55.5
55.9
55.7
55.6
55.8
56.1
56.3
56.5
56.6
56.8
57.0
57.3
57.0
57.1
57.4
57.5
57.2
57.7
57.5
57.6
57.8
57.9
58.1
58.1
57.9
57.6
57.2
56.9
56.6
56.5
56.6
56.7
56.8
57.0
57.0
57.2
57.5
57.8
57.9
58.2
58.2
58.0
57.8
57.3
56.2
55.9
56.1
56.1
56.5
56.9
57.0
57.0
57.2
57.8
58.0
58.5
58.8
59.3
59.4
59.8
60.0
59.8
59.9
60.0
59.9
59.1
58.8
59.0
59.2
59.4
59.0
58.5
58.2
58.0
57.7
57.3
57.1
57.5
58.2
58.6
59.0
59.6
59.7
59.8
60.0
60.0
60.1
60.4
60.5
60.6
60.8
60.9
61.1
61.4
61.7
61.9
62.0
62.2
62.4
62.6
62.9
62.9
63.0
63.0
63.2
63.0
62.7
62.3
61.9
61.8
61.6
61.4
61.4
61.5
61.5
61.4
61.4
61.7
61.8
61.9
62.2
62.4
62.5
63.0
63.1
62.8
62.8
62.8
62.9
63.1
63.3
63.4
63.5
63.7
63.9
64.0
64.0
64.1
64.0
64.2
64.3
64.2
64.2
64.4
64.6
64.5
64.2
64.3
64.3
63.8
63.5
63.0
62.8
62.8
62.8
62.5
62.5
62.3
62.1
62.2
62.3
62.3
62.4
62.4
62.4
62.7
62.8
62.8
63.0
63.1
63.1
63.3
63.3
63.0
62.8
62.8
62.8
62.5
62.0
61.4
60.3
59.6
59.0
58.5
58.5
58.6
58.5
58.3
58.4
58.3
58.3
58.5
58.5
58.5
58.5
58.7
58.6
58.6
58.7
58.5
58.8
58.9
59.0
59.3
59.2
59.4
59.3
59.4
59.8
59.7
59.8
59.7
60.0
60.1
60.2
60.1
60.3
60.5
60.4
60.5
60.7
60.6
60.8
61.0
60.7
52.9
56.1
57.4];

% 10 Year Treasury minus Core Inflation
rir_treasury = [2.77617
2.74393
2.8679
2.70129
1.93901
2.28598
1.39431
1.23484
1.46444
1.93519
2.93702
0.59043
-3.45182
-1.15086
1.83573
0.94924
0.78013
-1.82195
-2.07178
3.54165
6.85162
7.94046
8.09178
7.09177
5.72576
4.8118
4.75026
3.69862
3.13134
3.64365
3.96888
2.90011
4.4944
3.76481
3.50332
4.01222
3.7132
3.45686
2.66291
2.20338
3.01433
1.71219
1.60261
0.92381
1.57826
1.75936
-0.15492
3.58009
1.58367
-0.35973
-0.2776
0.88308
0.92988
2.02171];

rir_treasury_date=1962:2015 ;

[rir_treasury_hp,~] = hptrend(rir_treasury,10) ;

rir_treasury_q = [2.71899032258065
2.47485428571429
2.70197380952381
2.72598901639344
2.71817114754098
2.79468079365079
2.76084125
2.53257672131148
2.27995852459016
2.62515125
2.834545
2.82183016393443
2.96153049180328
2.76174380952381
2.90762875
3.14169344262295
3.34247825396825
2.64139349206349
2.19293375
1.55322
1.05144213114754
1.5350275
1.78506412698413
2.11585327868852
1.42401774193548
1.30168903225806
0.678483750000001
0.564331935483871
0.843883606557378
0.436544126984127
0.926165396825398
1.46517180327869
1.34144666666667
1.42179
1.25641875
0.388975573770492
0.141768196721312
1.2392573015873
1.94369875
2.45627278688525
2.71206222222222
3.0892975
3.33912285714286
3.44073333333333
3.77005774193548
3.69495523809524
3.82762015873016
2.18362333333333
1.62369590163935
0.472684761904763
-1.66114625
-3.29396950819672
-4.02958333333333
-2.402045
0.113372499999999
1.15113868852459
1.11266225806452
1.35956587301587
0.9712775
0.773366721311476
1.18853412698413
0.929521746031746
1.14126888888889
1.40750666666667
1.69485491803279
1.56359555555555
0.951516825396826
0.365881967213115
0.067123870967741
-0.256779999999999
-0.733550634920634
-0.262331147540984
-0.236963548387097
-2.79922095238095
-1.12804125
0.245213770491803
2.25477573770492
4.26416619047619
3.3314775
3.87049131147541
5.22651278688525
5.28602349206349
6.24507
5.47612262295082
6.00071301587302
6.88124
8.40616625
7.47683666666667
6.95111612903226
7.95612825396825
7.6135246031746
6.79844573770492
6.91875
6.34062206349206
6.22423555555555
5.50814903225806
4.3242
3.58325875
3.23499875
3.39016225806452
3.60063983606557
4.36508841269841
4.9000475
4.96598225806452
4.08059774193548
4.57734714285714
4.58366375
4.37752918032787
4.5387393442623
4.22238875
3.72927031746032
3.52811677419355
3.82828096774194
3.84170698412698
3.32298984126984
3.09195774193548
2.52446333333333
3.04491875
3.28578
2.9027
3.45162548387097
3.55528174603175
3.11898
3.27291258064516
2.79806672131148
2.55783523809524
2.3691425
2.48817774193548
3.18888258064516
4.34407612903226
4.42403875
5.0859131147541
4.52252032258065
3.52191873015873
3.33747634920635
2.84140838709677
3.02526387096774
4.0595625
4.1389375
3.7764535483871
4.08783
4.1744375
3.9338775
3.67254032258064
3.33042360655738
3.40582587301587
2.85301375
2.32092548387097
2.82900967213115
3.45872
3.87031875
4.12424870967742
4.2289026984127
3.78598063492063
3.35320126984127
2.99216516129032
2.3896535483871
2.63830047619048
2.33859770491803
2.04806677419355
2.54751666666667
2.67978375
2.00529375
1.94773870967742
2.08578
2.12914492063492
2.86616625
3.12095129032258
2.69375
2.81632677419355
2.49324625
2.0116064516129
1.99591655737705
2.01828375
2.16847625
2.38664672131148
2.47183677419355
2.61136841269841
2.07565206349206
1.96310516129032
2.05213225806452
2.55799375
2.6191126984127
1.95627290322581
1.27715590163934
1.5453125
1.3955175
1.23516741935484
0.982539508196721
1.49080365079365
2.0375425
1.71381225806452
2.37777885245902
2.53989
1.88819125
2.23281709677419
2.35146935483871
1.75024857142857
0.51603875
-0.12759868852459
-0.18848
-0.42711875
-0.376460158730159
-0.241950819672131
0.02183
0.3249
0.9617825
1.0210435483871
1.16289983606557
0.724442380952381
0.72549125
0.548867741935484
0.280432459016393
0.387375
0.362315
0.196283870967742
-0.255737704918033
-0.47437375
-0.685665
-0.043671475409836
0.297852903225807
0.462042380952381
0.551838571428572
0.628861612903226
0.844804590163935
0.696155
0.698469523809524
0.849667540983607
0.580930819672131
0.238148888888889
-0.50351125
-0.498634516129032
-0.87429
-0.608040952380952
-1.010345
-0.769063870967742];

rir_treasury_q_dates = 1962:.25:2020.75;
